We will use the list on Wikipedia as a starting point to see a partial list of COGNITIVE BIASES – I would like you to explore and research a bias that you think may cause problems with COST ESTIMATION. Your text – Chapter 7 – discusses the human bias of UNDERESTIMATION which can also be called PLANNING FALLACY. Please make sure to provide a summary of the article you research and you site. I expect that you will SYNTHESIZE your information (similar to that done in text in section “Human beings are biased toward underestimation…’ page 275 of your text) so that we have a clear understanding of the concepts.
Pick your bias: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
Please review all of these documents and videos for Questions 3 and 4 (additional research needed for question 4, but these can lead you):
Why people underestimate – academic journal
http://homepages.se.edu/cvonbergen/files/2013/01/Exploring-the-Planning-Fallacy_Why-People-Underestimate-Their-Task-Completion-Times.pdf
Behavioral Economics articles:
Lessons From the Space Shuttle Challenger Tragedy
Episode 7 | 18m 31s
Normalization of deviance, the process of becoming inured to risky actions, is a useful concept for today that was developed to explain how the Challenger disaster happened.
https://www.pbs.org/video/retro-report-on-pbs-season-1-episode-7-lessons-space-shuttle-challenger-tragedy/
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For your post – please number your responses, 1-4.
1. The Bias you pick and a summary of what the bias is
2. How this will impact cost estimation, RISK (chapter 11) and/or other area we have covered to date.
3. Biggest Ah Ha moment from the resources listed. Note: The Space Shuttle one is so eye opening.
4. Summary of additional research on this bias.
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