Goal
The purpose of this assignment is to understand how business cycle indicators move together with real GDP and help us evaluate the US economy.
Post
Please pick 5 economic indicators (see the list below – the business cycles indicators are also listed in your e-book) and find the data for these economic indicators for the last 15 years to include the 2007-09 recession.
How do these economic indicators explain the changes in real GDP for these years?
Your starting point is the historical chart for Real GDP for the last 15 years like the following:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1
(Links to an external site.)
(change the beginning date to January 2005)
Then find the charts for each of the 5 indicators you pick for the same period (from 2005 to current) and explain the fluctuations in these indicators with respect to Real GDP. (The Federal Reserve Bank evaluates the changes in all these indicators to evaluate the overall economy but in this assignment you will be taking only 5 of them. I hope that each of you pick different ones and we will have a complete picture of the economy. )
Start with the Real GDP chart and include all 5 charts for the same period (2005-2021) for the 5 business cycles indicators you pick. Explain how these indicators can be used together to evaluate the economic activity.
Hint: Copy and past all your charts in one document, include your explanation and submit one file in the discussion.
Below you will find the original source for each indicator but Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Data (FRED) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
(Links to an external site.)
is a shortcut and it’s easier to find historical data on this website (Search FRED) for most of the indicators. I recommend that you spend some time and go to the original sources to experience finding data.
Sources for Economic Indicators:
Leading Indicators
Average workweek www.bls.gov
(Links to an external site.)
(Links to an external site.)
(Table B-2. Average weekly hours and overtime of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted)
Unemployment claims www.bls.gov
(Links to an external site.)
(Table 1. Mass layoff events and initial claimants for unemployment insurance, January 2009 to December 2012, seasonally adjusted)
New consumer goods orders Conference Board
Delayed deliveries www.napm.org
(Links to an external site.)
(ism.ws)
New orders for plant and equipment Conference Board
New building permits www.census.gov
(Links to an external site.)
(Links to an external site.)
Stock prices www.standardandpoors.com
(Links to an external site.)
(Links to an external site.)
Money supply www.federalreserve.gov
(Links to an external site.)
(H6), Conference Board
Interest rates www.federalreserve.gov
(Links to an external site.)
(Links to an external site.)
Consumer expectations Surveys of Consumers University of Michigan, http://press.sca.isr.umich.edu/press/press_release
(Links to an external site.)
Coincident indicators
Nonagricultural payrolls www.bls.gov
(Links to an external site.)
Personal income minus transfer payments Conference Board
Industrial production www.federalreserve.gov
(Links to an external site.)
(G17 Table 1 and Table 1A)
Total industry capacity utilization rates www.federalreserve.gov
(Links to an external site.)
Manufacturing and trade sales Conference Board
Lagging Indicators
Unemployment rate www.bls.gov
(Links to an external site.)
Duration of unemployment www.bls.gov
(Links to an external site.)
Labor cost per unit of output www.bls.gov
(Links to an external site.)
Consumer price index for services www.bls.gov
(Links to an external site.)
Commercial and industrial loans Conference Board
Consumer credit to personal income ratio Conference Board
Prime rate www.federalreserve.org
(Links to an external site.)
OTHER RESOURCES
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Data https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
(Links to an external site.)
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond National Economic Indicators http://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/national_economic_indicators/pdf/all_charts.pdf
(Links to an external site.)
(Links to an external site.)
US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/briefrm/calendar-listview.html
(Links to an external site.)
(Links to an external site.)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Data http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/releases
(Links to an external site.)
Economic Policy Institute http://www.epi.org/types/economic-indicators/gdp-picture/
(Links to an external site.)
The Financial Forecast Center http://www.forecasts.org/index.htm
(Links to an external site.)
Library of Economics and Liberty http://www.econlib.org/library/data.html
(Links to an external site.)
Trading Economics http://www.tradingeconomics.com/indicators
(Links to an external site.)
Economics Indicators Calendar https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/nationalecon_cal.html
(Links to an external site.)
Reply to a discussion post from a classmate.
Last Completed Projects
| topic title | academic level | Writer | delivered |
|---|
