Preventive diplomacy is a cornerstone of Qatar’s foreign policy. But recent years have underscored the absence of viable regional frameworks including cooperative alliances that promote or enable such diplomatic efforts on a multilateral basis, as well as those that can be effective in managing and resolving conflicts after they have erupted. The absence of such frameworks was very evident during the blockade of Qatar. During that crisis, H.H Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani called for a framework for regional governance, and the arbitration of disputes’. This, he explained, should be a far-reaching and inclusive framework. As a prerequisite, parties to future disputes would use the new framework to agree on basic security principles and rules of governance, and at least a minimum level of security to allow for peace and prosperity. This would be followed by the introduction of
‘binding arbitration mechanisms’ that could be enforced by the collective body of the region’. The wider international community would provide diplomatic support and pressure to bolster this “holistic [regional] security agreement’ (The Peninsula, 16 February 2018).’
You are a senior advisor to decision-makers in Oatar. You are tasked with providing a recommendation on how Qatar can go about contributing to the establishment of such an inclusive
“platform for dialogue and negotiation’, as Qatar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister H.E.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani termed it in mid-2018 (The New York Times, 5 June
2018.2
The hope is that such a new framework might reduce the instability and insecurity caused by a regional vacuum and provide Qatar with a further opportunity to fulfil its constitutional commitment of ‘strengthening peace and security on the multilateral level to complement its bilateral efforts in this domain. Below are some of the objectives of any such framework once established:
Reduce existing sectarian and strategic tensions;
Reduce the drivers of militarization;
Reduce the level of interstate violence;
• • Promote collective problem-solving;
• Facilitate and sustain dialogue that promotes regional reconciliation;
Facilitate the launch of confidence building measures (CBMs), in particular assurance mechanisms;
Develop the circumstances for longer-term omni-enmeshment and interdependence;
In making your recommendations, please consider the following
1. What regional (or extra-regional) actors should be invited to participate in this new framework? Please name 4-6 key regional actors that you consider would be vital to participate to increase the effectiveness of your new framework in achieving its goals. Once you have listed them you will need to refer to them in subsequent sections.
2. What intrinsic, derivative and collective sources of power can Qatar draw on in attempting to establish and sustain such a framework?
3. What non-typical sources of power would Qatar need to use in order to establish and sustain such a framework?
Non-typical sources of power:
Agility
Social Cohesion
• Flexible maneuvering
Demonstrating value and usefulness
Visionary Leadership
Innovativeness
Rapid institution building
Moral Standing
Admiration and attraction power
4. What (alliance) entry considerations would Qatar need to take into account in order to improve the likelihood that the 4-6 key prospective members (as well as others) would join the new framework and in order to ensure the durability of the framework going forward?
And why?
Alliance Entry Considerations:
Threat Perception/Balance of Threat
Interests/Balance of Interest
Domestic factors/Omni-balancing
Opportunities for Shelter
Opportunities for Strategic hedging
Opportunities for free-riding
Opportunities for soft-balancing
Risks of entrapment
• Risks of abandonment
5. What are the key push and pull factors that might influence the entry of the 4-6 key prospective members (as well as others) into this new framework and ensure its durability?
And why?
The key push and pull factors:
Sovereignty and Trust
• Institutional Structures
• Political Willingness
Shared Hierarchy of Threats
Support of domestic constituents
Capacity to act in peace and security
Power of State (Strong/Weak)
Shared Vision of the benefits
Financial resources
Current geopolitical situation
6- Would your goal of a new framework that facilitates preventive diplomacy and/or conflict management and conflict resolution on the regional level be more effective if it was formal or informal in its institutional design? In making your decision consider both the advantages
enter or kan
and disadvantages of formal and informal structures and how they might best suit the 4-6 key
Your rules
states vou consider vital to participate (as well as others).
Characteristics of formality
Characteristics of informality:
of the
worK
Dependence on major actor
All levels of cooperation on range of issues
Formal structures (political and operational)
Burden and cost-sharing
Permanence
Dependence on major actor
Issue-specific
Flexible arrangements
No strict admission criteria
No precedent-setting footprint
Last Completed Projects
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