Best Writer

Overview
The goal of this project is for you to complete a time series analysis using the forecasting methods discussed in the lessons and text. You will choose one of the time series provided from the US Census time series website. (Links to an external site.)
Steps and Prep
For best understanding please review the details of the project in conjunction with Week 8 – Lessons and Video Lecture. Warning — you may not use the same retail sales data I chose to use in the example.
Go to the US Census Time Series Dashboard (Links to an external site.). Choose a variable. Take a quick look at the variable with the census plot tool. You can decide which variable to download for analysis and the time period.
Download the data as a TXT file. Either open right away or save the file and open with excel.
How to get the data:
Clean the data.
If necessary manipulate the data so that it is an appropriate format for time series analysis.
Create an appropriate date variable.
For regression create t variable and seasonal dummy variables.
Explore methods
Plot the data to explore patterns and to determine an appropriate forecasting method.
Use XLSTAT to forecast the next time period using at least two methods: moving average, exponential smoothing and/or regression.
Calculate the errors MSE, MAPE and a future value of each forecasting method, and decide which method is the best overall based on the lowest error.
Build the Best Forecast
Defend your forecasting method.
Plot the forecasted model over your data.
Provide a write up with answering the questions below.
Requirements and Scoring
Explore the time series
(5 points) Plot the time series. Paste plot. Edit axis labels so they are clean and understood by someone who is not familiar with the data.
(5 points) Describe the time series. Be sure to include the variable names and any relevant contextual information.
Does it show any specific patterns? I.e. horizontal, seasonal, trend, cyclical.
What is the variable and what might cause such patterns?
Are there any abrupt changes in the patterns? If so, when do they happen? Are they just an outlier or are they an overall shift? Are there any known historical events around that time period that might help explain the abrupt change? Consider whether a trend continues after the change and whether time periods before the change should be included in a forecast for future values.
Choose Forecast Methods
(2 points) Based on the patterns in your data, choose two methods to forecast your series. State the methods to which you chose to forecast your data.
(4 points) Explain why these methods are appropriate based on the pattern of the data.
(4 points) Based on your chosen methods, provide the following values and why or how you obtained them:
k value (for moving average)
smoothing constant (exponential smoothing)
and/or the regression equation
(10 points) For both methods, construct a plot with the forecasted model over the original data.
Edit axis labels so they are clean and understood by someone who is not familiar with the data.
Identify the forecasting method depicted in the plot.
Paste plots.
(6 points) Provide a table with your chosen methods. Include the MSE and MAPE and next time periods predicted value.
Your “Best” Method
(3 points) Determine which method is the best at predicting your future value. Explain why it is the “best” at forecasting your series.
(3 points) In a sentence state your forecasted value in context.
(3 points) Beyond the lowest MSE or MAPE, which method did you prefer? Why? Would you recommend choosing a different method even if it has a higher error? Why?
(5 points) Logistics – Include a Title page. Check spelling and grammar. Neatness – Provide responses in logical order. Plots are pasted inline with text. Use a simple and common font.
Peer Reviews and Deadlines
All due dates in Week 8 by 11:59PM PST
Original submission made by Wednesday
If you miss the original submission due date you will not be eligible for peer reviews nor will you be able to review your peers. You may still submit for instructor grading by Sunday.
Peer Reviews
At least 1 peer will “grade” and provide feedback on your work by the end of the day on Friday. Review the feedback, make adjustments.
You will do the same for at least 2 peers.
Resubmit by Sunday.
If you choose not to resubmit your work, the original submission will be graded by the instructor within 1 week.
Rubric Scoring
Scores are based on the point values in the instructions and rubric below.
Optional Group Submission
If you chose to complete this project in a group, then one person in your group will need to submit to the group submission option by Sunday at 11:59 PM (Next tab).
The group aspect eliminates the requirement for a peer review. You will earn the 20 points from the peer review by choosing the group option.
It is expected that you worked together and evaluated each others work. In order to so this option you need to have informed me by Wednesday of Week 7 in the Group Project Survey.

Select a fellow student’s post and substance to the
topic discussed. This post will require a scholarly source from the FNU
Library or LexisNexis. The goal is to provide credibility to the student’s content. ***((Scholarly Source is
Attached))***

Post Selected:
Week 7:
Additionally called retail theft is the act of hiding
merchandise that has now not been purchased on one’s man or woman with the
intent to withhold the object from the owner. It also falls below price
swapping as nicely. If the offender is a first-time culprit while shoplifting.
A 2nd offense may be a first-degree misdemeanor, which can be as much as 12
months in prison and a $1,000 quality, it all depends on the price of the
objects stolen. The two separate categories for shoplifting in the nation of
Florida are petit theft and grand robbery. Petit theft offers with each
misdemeanor and felonies with up to 5 years in prisoner lying on what is stolen
and grand theft could have a penalty of as much as thirty years in jail.

ONLY 1 Source is required and It is Attached

This is the Reference to be used for this Source:

Taschler, J. (2021, Oct 23). Paying the price: Retail theft
has become a new version of organized crime. Oshkosh Northwestern Retrieved
from https://www.proquest.com/newspapers/paying-price/docview/2585191965/se-2?accountid=158399

describe how interconnected information systems can facilitate managerial decision-making. Pay particular attention to differences in managerial levels and the types of decisions and information at those levels’?

Establish an abstract for a subsequent research paper conveying the following points:
Central question of research paper: how structuralism and post-modernism not only lack inclusion of but undermine sociological realities underpinned by biological norms, and as a result present large scale attempts, often based on ideology, to implement changes to large social systems to the detriment of sociopolitical stability.
Western democratic ideals of individual liberty, free speech, free markets, are all negatively impacted by broad skepticism and repudiation of human historical progress.
Identity politics as a result of post modernism and as prevalent at least beyond the threshold of critical mass, even if only slightly, in universities does not assist in training students of social sciences to constructively assist with easing the burdens of identity tensions.
Gender and race relations, are all predominant examples of claimed primary stratifiers across societies today (not restricted to nations, but of course varying with relation thereto) – claims which are predisposed against the fact that a far broader scope of elements impact individuals’ positions in society.

Discuss the prevalence, incidence and impacts of dyspnoea on patients in the ICU

Videos to watch this week;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjZolHCrC8E&feature=youtu.be (Links to an external site.)
Nature v Nurture
https://eznvcc.vccs.edu:2443/login?url=https://fod-infobase-com/PortalPlaylists.aspx?wID=98275&xtid=39699&loid=64433Links to an external site.
Harlow; watch segments 7 through 10 from the video below.
https://eznvcc.vccs.edu:2443/login?url=https://fod-infobase-com/PortalPlaylists.aspx?wID=98275&xtid=43511Links to an external site.
Piaget
https://eznvcc.vccs.edu:2443/login?url=https://fod-infobase-com/PortalPlaylists.aspx?wID=98275&xtid=43774Links to an external site.
Symbolic Interactionism/ G. H. Mead
https://eznvcc.vccs.edu:2443/login?url=https://fod-infobase-com/PortalPlaylists.aspx?wID=98275&xtid=206210

Please read “MADM410
M6 Discussion Questions.docx” for instructions.

Module 6 Course
Material (Chapters/Supplemental Readings – files uploaded)
(1)
York Chapter-2 Equal Employment Opportunity.pdf
(2)
Westover Chapter-13 Safety and Health at Work.pdf
(3)
Module 6 Supplemental Material.docx

How moral hazard and adverse selection impact health insurance policies

At least 4 credible and reliable non-textbook references and ONLY reputable sources
Explain the issue using information from the sources
Who are the stakeholders (parties interested in the outcome)?
What are the healthcare considerations that to apply this case and why?
What are the financial considerations that apply to this case?
Use sources to support arguments.

For this assignment, you will write a case study analysis that focuses on the communication strategy of an organization of your choice.

In this assignment, you will need to a) summarize the communication strategy of your chosen organization, b) analyze the communication strategy of your chosen organization, and c) explain how you would integrate the communication strategy into the current organization where you work or into a former organization where you have worked.

A. Summarize the Communication Strategy
Locate an article that discusses the communication strategies used by your chosen organization. After reading your chosen article, you may find the exercise below to be helpful in developing a summary paragraph. Identify the author(s) of your chosen article, and complete the following exercise:

[Insert author’s name here] discusses how innovative communication processes have helped [insert name of the organization here] resolve [insert issue here].

The top reason [insert author’s name here] holds that position is __________.
A second reason [insert author’s name here] holds that position is __________.
A third reason [insert author’s name here] holds that position is __________.
After filling in the blanks, you should have a list of the positions and claims made by the authors about your chosen organization. Shape your notes into a summary paragraph. (Do not simply include the list that you completed in the exercise above.)
Remember that the summary paragraph is where you will present information from the source. You will provide your analysis and interpretation in the following section of the paper.

B. Analyze the Communication Strategy
Be sure to include how the communication strategy impacts the organization on multiple levels. Feel free to use the four levels of sales, services, value chain, and continuous improvement as a model, which was discussed in the case study on the Dell Computer Corporation in the Unit VI Lesson. (Note: Your categories may be different.)
In the analysis portion of the assignment, discuss any problems (or potential problems) with the communications in your chosen organization, and provide potential solutions based on your research. Include ways that effective management could help to provide a solution.

C. Explain Integration Techniques
Finally, explain how this communication strategy could be integrated into your current or former workplace.
You will need to reference at least two academic sources.
Use the standard five-paragraph format (introduction/body/conclusion). APA format should be used.

The assignment should be a minimum of three pages in length.
Content, organization, and grammar/mechanics will be evaluated.

For this assignment, you are to choose a recent event/issue that has received wide coverage in the media, and that clearly suggests ethical considerations. There are different areas covered in this course and exercise (Human Resource Development, Public Administration, and Criminal Justice). It may be an event in the news, such as some aspect of immigration policy, police shootings, etc. If you prefer advertising topics, you might analyze a series of ads on one topic. Your choice should reflect your interest in the topic but needs to be something that has been covered enough to give you material to analyze. On the other hand, be specific enough so that you don’t have huge amounts of material to plow through. You might even choose an issue currently being covered in the media, and monitor coverage for the available over the course.
With your topic, you are to gather at least 8 – 10 sources (stories, journal articles, research items). Analyze media coverage pf your topic, identifying important ethical concerns such as:

Bias, truth, fairness, economic considerations, competition, deception, emotional and rational approach, etc.
Don’t forget to also analyze images shown in the photos and videos if that applies.
You will then analyze the ethical issue(s) discernable through media coverage to determine how the policy should be resolved under each of the three main ethical frameworks we will discuss.
Your objective is to recognize ethical issues in actual media coverage; apply critical skills of reason and analysis to an actual ethical issue to a current-day program or problem; tolerate ambiguity in treatment of ethical issues; apply ethical theories to a case study. Your result may reveal surprising bias in the treatment of the issue. This assignment will form a 6 to 8-page paper using APA format. You must also have a title and reference page.